Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Caution

A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."