Rising Verbal Conflict Between Ethiopia and Eritrean Government Triggers Concerns of Conflict

Mounting concerns are present over the possibility of armed conflict among Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in the previous year that his government's maritime access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the both governments have frequently been strained. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

In 1998, a border war started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Statements from Ethiopia's Officials

Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and suggested the wish to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of losing access to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

In the face of continuous challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to brief comments on X from Communications Head the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for sea access describing it as "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a approach of claiming back previous domains.

The information ministry cautioned on 16 September that attempts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Border

So far, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, state television has displayed completion events of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The leader of personnel division of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an interview that the army was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Previous Origins of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was governed by Italian rulers.

After World War II, it was then administered by the British administration before becoming a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this arrangement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long internal conflict occurred, finishing with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their shared boundary, causing conflict in 1998.

Though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations continued at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a declaration that the war was finished – a move that earned the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet ties have since broken down once more.